Polls and Voting
Posted: Sun Oct 23, 2022 5:34 am
It's really difficult to go to the poll and vote for someone the polls say is a loser. As a matter of fact, pollsters know that, and they also know that they have a considerable effect on voter turnout. I mean didn't we all think that Trump was going to lose in 2016? I sure did. The media, pollsters, and everyone had Trump down double-digit.
Then it happened - the public went out and voted and boom, the rest is history. After that election, the pollsters were really wondering what happened for them to be so wrong. Most conservatives knew - it was wishful thinking, and Trump really making a big push at the last. But the pollsters should have figured that in. They were really off cause they all thought even with the margin of error, Hillary was going to take the Presidency - hence the famous magazine cover.
I just love this cover!!!!
So what are the polls saying about the Midterms? They are saying that Dems will hold the Senate and that the House will be red, but it won't be anything surprising. Because after all Roe and Dobbs have handed the Democrats all they need for a victory.
But wait, women aren't voting the way that they have in the past. What the Democrats thought was a shoo-in with the Roe/Dobbs decision has now turned into other things - inflation, getting enough groceries for the dinner table, buying gas to get to work or run carpool, the horrible influx of immigrants, but most of all inflation - it's the economy stupid!
And then this:
Where are the pollsters on these matters? It's turning out that Roe/Dobbs is anything but a sure thing for the Dems, and now issues are changing - and the Dems are being left behind.
This article is behind a pay wall - only it's free if you want to give them your email but it has some good points in the article
Then it happened - the public went out and voted and boom, the rest is history. After that election, the pollsters were really wondering what happened for them to be so wrong. Most conservatives knew - it was wishful thinking, and Trump really making a big push at the last. But the pollsters should have figured that in. They were really off cause they all thought even with the margin of error, Hillary was going to take the Presidency - hence the famous magazine cover.
I just love this cover!!!!
So what are the polls saying about the Midterms? They are saying that Dems will hold the Senate and that the House will be red, but it won't be anything surprising. Because after all Roe and Dobbs have handed the Democrats all they need for a victory.
But wait, women aren't voting the way that they have in the past. What the Democrats thought was a shoo-in with the Roe/Dobbs decision has now turned into other things - inflation, getting enough groceries for the dinner table, buying gas to get to work or run carpool, the horrible influx of immigrants, but most of all inflation - it's the economy stupid!
And then this:
Where are the pollsters on these matters? It's turning out that Roe/Dobbs is anything but a sure thing for the Dems, and now issues are changing - and the Dems are being left behind.
This article is behind a pay wall - only it's free if you want to give them your email but it has some good points in the article
- Pollsters are making obvious mistakes (Duh! Ya think?)
- Some surveys simply miss many GOP voters (Some don't even want to say they are Maga for fear of a Jan 6th type incarceration)
- The polls reflect a post-Roe shift (Hmm - you mean they could be voting for more than one policy?)
- The polls are shifting along with the issues (Yeah, that means things are resting back to normal after the Roe/Dobbs excitement, which means prices are still high, there are some shortages, gas is still high, and massive felons and miscreants are crossing the border like crazy